Eskapa book often metions that ‘the cure’ should take 3 or 4 months; however, the actual data from one of the studies he presents shows that a) the patients started at the relatively low unit count of 37 units per week on average (compared to the higher weekly unit numbers many, not all, of us had pre-TSM here) and b) they only achieved about a 50% reduction in drinking at 3 or 4 months. In fact, it took these 37 unit per week on average drinkers a full 9 months before they had reached a plateau of about a 75% reduction of their drinking.

I've looked at the data in Eskapa's book -- especially the graph of one study on p.29 -- and here is the approximate data as presented:

Participants: 148
Successful patients: 115 (78%)
Average pre-TSM units: 37
Average units after 9 months: 9 (just under 25% of initial 37 units)

The approximate data month-by-month:
Pre-TSM: 37 units (100%)
1m (30d) 27.75 units (75% of pre-TSM units)
2m (60d) 25 units
3m (91d) 20 units (> 50% of pre-TSM units)
4m (121d) 17.50 units (< 50% of pre-TSM units)
5m (152d) 15 units
6m (182d) 14 units
7m (213d) 13 units
8m (243d) 12 units
9m (274d) 9.25 units (25% of pre-TSM units)
10m (304d) 9.25 units
11m (335d) 9.25 units
12m (365d) 9 units

I graph the approximate data below showing the percentage reduction of drinking month-by month:



As you can see, an average 25% reduction in units took place by the end of the first month (30 days), a 50% reduction in units occurred by about 4th month mark (actually a bit before that; around 105 days) and an average 75% reduction in units occurred after about 9 months (274 days).

The "cure" in fact appears to be just that: a 75% reduction in units (from 37 to 9 per week in this study) and took 9 months on average, with even further reduction in units and craving in the 3 year follow up (as reported in Eskapa's book).

Here’s a different graph of the approximate units per week vs. days on TSM:



I present the above to provide a realistic context and to show that the 3 or 4 month time frame was for patients that averaged just 37 units and, even then, they only cut their consumption in half at around 3 1/2 months. As a lot of people have mentioned on this site, they've seen continued improvements at 6-9 months or even after a year.

Thanks for reposting this Merlot. This is such an important subtlety from the book that many will not realize. I wish we had a way to "sticky" this on the Board Index page. We all appreciate the work you put into this analysis.

Is there a reference for this data? I combed through all available TMS-like studies but don't remember a paper that presents such numbers.

One thing is for sure - the Finnish TSM studies seem to involve mainly very light drinkers. This may mean one of the two: 1) they are not "true" alcoholics to begin with, 2) Finns, due to some genetic peculiarity, become addicted to alcohol at much smaller doses. Either way, caution should be exercised in translating these results onto much heavier drinkers of different ethnic background.

Nutella, the reference to the data is the graph on p. 29 of The Cure for Alcoholism by Eskapa. I simply took the approximate numbers by examining the graph in Figure 3.

Merlot, I meant the reference to a study report. A place where one could get details on the numbers and the ways they were obtained.

Here's what it says under Figure 3 on Page 29 in Eskapa's book in reference to the chart:



BTW, fn. 16 references an article on a study by Sinclair in a Finnish journal, Psychiatrica Fennica, which I have not been able to access, even via online journal search at a major university.

Thanks! That's pretty much what I thought. Either not published or published in Finnish. Almost certainly not controlled for anything. Sigh.

Thanks Saint Vincent. I hope you don't mind that I've quoted below your post in my progress thread in reference to the data/charts. It makes some points that may be of interest to readers of this thread.